Quantitative Scenario Planning in Practice

What You'll Learn

  • Understand the basics of quantitative scenario planning.
  • See how two regional agencies have applied quantitative scenario planning.
  • Identify planning challenges for which quantitative scenario planning is helpful.

More Course Details

Demographic patterns, such as migration trends and household formation, often form the base of regional plans. Demographic data are often projected into the future based on a number of inputs, such as demographic data from the past. However, the past may not paint an accurate picture of the future. Treating projections as reality can have damaging consequences for allocating resources effectively and efficiently.

To respond dynamically to unknowns in the future, scenario planning can be used to establish multiple plausible situations that may come to pass. By designing for not one future situation but many, organizations can respond to needs in a more adaptive fashion.

Quantitative scenario planning quantifies the demand side (e.g., demographic patterns) and supply side (e.g., resource allocation), specifying the mathematical relationship between the two.

Learn how the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) of the Boston metro area and the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) have built or adapted their own quantitative models, enabling them to improve the quality of dialogue and approach policy and planning in a more comprehensive, responsive, and adaptive way.